Tim Murray

I have a passion for applied economic and quantitative analysis. I believe that advanced analysis of detailed data can provide insights and guidance to decision makers that would be unavailable otherwise. However, without an in-depth human understanding of the environment to which those tools are applied, the limitations of data and the techniques, data analysis is high risk and potentially misleading. My skills, experience and enthusiasm enable me to combine advanced technical data analysis and modelling with an understanding of the real-world context in which decision-makers operate. In particular I enjoy using quantitative tools to illustrate the potential impact of policy change, and for forecasting/prediction. I enjoy translating real-world problems into models which can then be used to make more accurate and better decisions. My focus is on communicating the implications of results in easily understood ways, and highlighting key risks and strategies to mitigate those risks. I have expertise in formulating and running applied economic models and performing advanced data analysis, and describing the implications of results to non-technical audiences. I also have experience leading expert teams, and training junior staff in the skills required to perform technical analysis independently. Most recently, I have applied and customised a number of machine-learning tools (including random forests, gradient-boosted decision trees, and several types of neural networks, alongside traditional statistical tools and tests) to Australian equity markets (using python and C++). I have expertise in developing and using economic models, including computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, microsimulation models (coded in python, R, SAS, GAMS, GemPack) as well as purpose built partial equilibrium and mathematical programming models (coded in GAMS, python, R, C and C++). I have extensive experience applying statistical (regression) and data-analytic tools, and producing visualisations of results, in a number of packages and languages (including R, python and javascript).